Most HVAC companies don't have a lead problem. They have a calendar problem.
In January, your phones ring off the hook and you can't get to everyone. In May, the trucks sit in the yard and you start answering calls from people selling you leads. Then you buy leads in a panic, at the worst price, from someone who also sold them to three other companies.
This one is for HVAC owners who want steady work all year, not feast and famine. I pulled a full year of Google search data for the most important HVAC searches. The numbers tell you exactly when homeowners are looking, and what you should be doing in each season to catch them.
What a year of HVAC searches looks like
Here's the U.S. monthly Google search volume for the core HVAC searches, from October 2025 through September 2026. Data is from Google Ads via DataForSEO. Google rounds these numbers into ranges, so read them as direction, not exact counts.
| Search | Average per month | Busiest month | Slowest month |
|---|---|---|---|
| ac repair | 368,000 | July: 673,000 | December: 165,000 |
| furnace repair | 201,000 | January: 450,000 | June and September: 60,500 |
| ac repair near me | 201,000 | September: 368,000 | November: 110,000 |
| furnace repair near me | 74,000 | January: 135,000 | May: 27,100 |
| hvac repair near me | 49,500 | September: 90,500 | May: 33,100 |
| heat pump installation | 22,200 | January: 33,100 | Spring and September: 18,100 |
| ac replacement | 14,800 | October: 27,100 | January: 5,400 |
| furnace replacement | 9,900 | October: 18,100 | May and June: 3,600 |
Three things jump out.
Repair searches follow the weather, hard. "Furnace repair" swings about 7 times between January and the slow months. "AC repair" swings about 4 times between July and December. When the weather turns, everybody's searching at once.
Replacement searches peak in the fall. Both "AC replacement" and "furnace replacement" hit their highest point in October. That's the homeowner who limped through summer on a dying unit and doesn't want to risk the winter. That's your big-ticket job, and it shows up before the first freeze, not during it.
Heat pump searches barely move. "Heat pump installation" stays between about 18,000 and 33,000 a month all year. It's the steadiest search on the list.
One more number. The Google Ads cost per click for "hvac leads" and "hvac lead generation" was about $79. That's higher than any homeowner search on the list. Those aren't homeowners searching. Those are lead sellers bidding to reach you. Remember that the next time one calls.
The real lesson: peak season and shoulder season need different plans
During a cold snap or a heat wave, you don't need more marketing. You need to answer the phone. The demand is already there. The company that picks up gets the job.
During the slow months, answering isn't the problem. Getting found is. That's when the work you do on your Google profile, your website, and your customer list pays off.
Most HVAC companies flip this around. They pour money into ads in July when they can't handle the calls they have, and go quiet in April and October when they should be building the pipeline.
Where good HVAC leads come from, best first
I rank lead sources by two things: how likely they are to turn into a booked job, and whether you own them. Leads you own get cheaper over time. Leads you rent get more expensive.
1. Your own customers
Your past customers are the best leads you will ever get. They already trust you. They already have your number. And every one of them owns equipment that will need service, repair, and eventually replacement.
The HVAC companies with the steadiest calendars sell maintenance agreements and treat that list like gold. Two tune-ups a year fill the slow months in spring and fall, and every tune-up is a chance to spot the system that's on its last legs before it dies in January.
What to do: Get every customer into your CRM with their equipment type and age. Send a spring and fall tune-up reminder by text and email. Flag every system over 12 to 15 years old for a replacement conversation in September and October, right when replacement searches peak.
2. Your Google Business Profile and Google Maps
When someone searches "furnace repair near me," the map shows up before the regular results. That's where the call happens.
Your profile needs the right categories (common ones for HVAC include HVAC Contractor, Air Conditioning Contractor, Heating Contractor, and Furnace Repair Service), real photos from real jobs, a steady flow of reviews, and accurate hours. Google says businesses with complete and accurate information are more likely to show up in local results.
Read the #1 ranking factor most contractors get wrong, and use the Google Business Profile checklist for every trade to find the gaps in yours.
3. Your website and HVAC SEO
Your website is where homeowners go to decide if they trust you, and where Google and AI tools go to figure out what you do and where.
The HVAC websites that win in search have a separate page for every service, not one "Services" page with a bulleted list. Furnace repair. Furnace replacement. AC repair. AC replacement. Heat pump installation. Ductless mini-splits. Indoor air quality. Maintenance plans. Each page answers the questions homeowners actually ask about that service. Then they add a real page for each town they serve, with jobs they've done there. Here's how to build service area pages that rank.
And they answer the questions homeowners are asking right now. In 2026, two of those are big:
•"Is there still a tax credit for a heat pump?" The federal energy efficient home improvement credit (25C) is gone for equipment installed after December 31, 2025, according to the IRS. Homeowners still ask about it, and many still believe it exists. A clear, honest page that explains what changed and points to any state or utility rebates in your area builds trust fast.
•"Can I still get an R-410A system?" The refrigerant rules have changed twice. In May 2026, the EPA finalized a rule that, as ACCA summarized it, lifted the January 1, 2026 deadline on installing residential R-410A systems. Homeowners are confused. A plain-English page from a local expert wins that search.
SEO takes months, not weeks. That's exactly why you start it in the slow season. For the bigger picture, read the SEO, AEO, and GEO ranking guide.
4. Google Local Services Ads
Local Services Ads are the ads at the very top of the page with the badge. You pay per lead, not per click. Google's help page says you're charged for each valid lead, like an answered call, and that leads found to be invalid or low quality aren't charged. Google now issues many of those credits automatically within about 30 days.
A few things changed recently, and a lot of HVAC owners haven't caught up:
•The badge is now "Google Verified." Google moved to a single badge for all advertisers, and the Google Guarantee money-back guarantee was discontinued for jobs booked after December 7, 2025.
•HVAC gets extra screening. Google lists HVAC as an urgent category that gets an extra level of screening, including background checks on your service professionals. Screening averages three to four weeks once your documents are in. Start before you need it.
•Local Services Ads are moving into Google Ads. Google says it's moving them into Performance Max campaigns with pay-per-lead goals, starting with some U.S. home service advertisers in August 2026 and finishing in 2027. Expect your setup to change.
LSA works best when your reviews are strong and someone answers every call. Google watches how you respond. Here's our Local Services Ads playbook.
5. Google Ads (pay per click)
Regular search ads still work for HVAC, but clicks are expensive. The Google Ads planner put the cost per click for "ac repair" at about $46 and "furnace repair" at about $27. Across the whole Home and Home Improvement category, LocaliQ's 2026 benchmarks show an average cost per lead of about $91.
Google Ads is a faucet. It's great for turning on demand fast, like the first week of a heat wave, or for pushing replacement jobs in the fall. It stops the second you stop paying. Read Google Ads vs. SEO for how to split the budget. The logic is the same for HVAC.
6. Shared lead sites
Angi, HomeAdvisor, and Thumbtack can fill gaps, especially when you're new to a market. But the leads are often shared with other companies, and you're renting the customer, not building anything. I wrote a full breakdown: Is Angi Leads worth it?
7. AI search
More homeowners are asking ChatGPT, Google's AI Mode, and Siri for an HVAC company. These tools pull from your Google profile, your website, Yelp, Bing, and other directories. If your information is wrong or thin in those places, you won't get named. Here's where AI search gets its facts about your business.
The 12-month HVAC lead calendar
Here's how I'd run the year for an HVAC company in a climate with real winters and real summers. Shift it a month or two for your market.
| Months | What homeowners are doing | Where your effort goes |
|---|---|---|
| January to February | Searching for furnace repair at the highest levels of the year | Answer every call, day and night. Ask every happy customer for a review. Take photos of every job. |
| March to April | Searches drop off. Spring is coming | Sell AC tune-ups to your customer list. Add new service pages and town pages to your website. Start LSA screening if you're not in yet. |
| May to June | The quietest stretch for furnace searches, and AC hasn't peaked | Push maintenance agreements. Publish answers to the big homeowner questions. Clean up your Google profile and directory listings. |
| July to August | AC repair searches hit their peak | Answer every call. Turn on extra Google Ads only if you can staff the calls. Collect reviews and photos. |
| September to October | Replacement searches for both AC and furnaces peak | Call every customer with an aging system. Run replacement-focused ads and posts. Sell fall tune-ups. |
| November to December | AC searches bottom out. Furnace searches climb with the cold | Get your after-hours answering ready before the first cold snap. Finish the year's website and profile work. |
Answering is half of lead generation
I'll say it plainly. The cheapest lead you'll ever get is the one you already paid for and didn't lose.
When "furnace repair" goes from 60,000 searches to 450,000, every HVAC company in your town is flooded at the same time. The one that answers wins. If nobody's there at 9 p.m., that call goes to the next company on the map. Set up your after-hours coverage before the season hits, not during it. Here's how to choose: AI receptionist vs. answering service.
Measure booked jobs, not leads
Every lead seller will brag about cost per lead. It's the wrong number.
Track every call and form back to its source. Then measure cost per booked job and revenue per source. A $40 shared lead that books one job in ten costs you $400 per job. A $90 Local Services lead that books one in three costs you $270. A review-driven call from your Google profile might cost you nothing but the work you already put in.
You can't fix what you don't measure. If you don't know where your last 50 jobs came from, start there.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best way to get HVAC leads in 2026?
The best HVAC leads come from your own past customers and from people who find you on Google Maps and your website. They cost the least over time and book at the highest rates. Google Local Services Ads and Google Ads add fast volume, and shared lead sites like Angi can fill gaps. Most HVAC companies need a mix, weighted toward the leads they own.
When do homeowners search for HVAC services the most?
Google search data from October 2025 through September 2026 shows "furnace repair" peaking in January at about 450,000 U.S. searches and "AC repair" peaking in July at about 673,000. Replacement searches for both furnaces and air conditioners peak in October. "Heat pump installation" stays fairly steady all year.
How much does an HVAC lead cost?
It depends on the source. Google Ads planner data shows clicks for "ac repair" around $46 and "furnace repair" around $27, and LocaliQ's 2026 benchmarks put the average cost per lead in the Home and Home Improvement category at about $91. Local Services Ads charge per valid lead, and shared lead sites set prices by job and location. Compare sources by cost per booked job, not cost per lead.
Do Local Services Ads work for HVAC companies?
They can work well, because you pay per lead instead of per click. HVAC is an urgent category, so Google requires extra screening, including background checks, which averages three to four weeks. The old Google Guaranteed badge has been replaced by a single Google Verified badge, and Google is moving Local Services Ads into Google Ads campaigns through 2027.
Is there still a federal tax credit for heat pumps in 2026?
No. According to the IRS, the federal energy efficient home improvement credit (25C) is not allowed for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. Some states and utilities still offer rebates, so check what's available in your area.
How long does HVAC SEO take to work?
Usually several months before you see steady results, depending on your market and competition. That's why the slow spring and early summer months are the best time to build service pages, town pages, and your Google profile, so they're working by the time fall replacement season starts.
The bottom line
HVAC demand is predictable. Your lead plan should be too.
Answer every call when the weather turns. Build the pipeline you own when it's quiet. Talk to your aging-system customers in the fall, before the first freeze. The HVAC companies with full calendars all year aren't always the biggest. They're the ones who stopped reacting to the weather and started planning around it.
Want an HVAC marketing plan built around your own market's search data? At Resonating Brands, we build next generation websites, Google profiles, and lead systems for HVAC companies and other home service contractors. Contact us and we'll show you what homeowners in your service area are searching for, month by month.
Sources
•Google Ads search volume and cost-per-click data via DataForSEO, U.S., October 2025 to September 2026, pulled November 1, 2026
•Google, "How Local Services Ads charges work"
•Google, "Google Verified badge"
•Google, "Local Services Ads screening and verification"
•Google, "Local Services Ads in Google Ads"
•LocaliQ, "Search advertising benchmarks", updated June 1, 2026
•IRS, "FAQs for modification of sections 25C, 25D, 25E, 30C, 30D, 45L, 45W, and 179D", August 21, 2025
•EPA, "Technology transitions HFC restrictions by sector", updated August 28, 2026
•ACCA, "EPA lifts R-410A installation deadline, but refrigerant prices could rise", May 22, 2026
•ACHR News, "Maximize your HVAC business potential: a deep dive into Google Business Profile strategies", March 28, 2024
•Google, "Tips to improve your local ranking on Google"
Janette O'Shaughnessy is the founder of Resonating Brands, a boutique digital marketing agency based in West Michigan that specializes in next generation websites, voice agents, and lead generation systems for home service contractors.
